K-Display, Having Lost LCD Supremacy to China, Now Faces a Precarious Position in OLED

Samsung and LG’s dominance in the OLED market
China’s relentless pursuit triggering alarm
8.6-generation mega-investments accelerating market capture

Leveraging massive state subsidies and its vast domestic market, China—having already seized control of the liquid crystal display (LCD) market—is now deploying the same playbook in organic light-emitting diodes (OLED), encroaching upon Korea’s last bastion. Once unrivaled in the global arena, K-Display relinquished the LCD crown to China in 2021. Samsung Display, battered by Beijing’s price offensive, ultimately exited its LCD business in 2022 to concentrate resources on OLED technology. Yet even this sector is increasingly under threat from Chinese challengers.

BOE, Visionox, and CSOT Claim 38% of Global OLED Share

According to Counterpoint Research, in the second quarter of this year, China’s BOE, Visionox, and CSOT collectively secured 38% of global OLED shipments, up three percentage points from the previous quarter. BOE held a 15% share, ranking second worldwide, Visionox took 12% for third place, and CSOT captured 9%, ranking fifth. Samsung Display remained in the lead with 37%, while LG Display, at 9%, was nearly on par with CSOT. Factoring in EverDisplay, Tianma, and other Chinese manufacturers, Beijing’s overall market share is approaching 50%.

China’s surging presence is backed by a formidable domestic market and state financial aid. Counterpoint noted that as China’s display supply chain matures and cost competitiveness strengthens, Chinese OLED panels are rapidly capturing global market share. Its latest production capacity report projects China’s display output to rise from 68% of global capacity in 2023 to 75% by 2028.

Particularly in smartphone OLEDs, China’s advances are striking. A recent report by the Gyeonggi Research Institute highlighted that Chinese firms are increasingly penetrating the mid- to low-end smartphone, wearable, and automotive segments, driving significant gains. As a result, Chinese shipments temporarily overtook Korea’s. In 2022, Korea held a commanding 75.3% share versus China’s 24.4%, but by 2024 the gap narrowed to just 8.9 percentage points. The shift was fueled largely by Huawei and Xiaomi prioritizing domestic OLED procurement.

While Korea has since reclaimed first place, Chinese momentum persists. In the first half of last year, Chinese-made OLEDs accounted for 86.1% of domestic smartphone panels. Years of massive investment targeting the “defeat Korea” agenda have yielded marked quality improvements. Even Apple, long regarded as a stringent evaluator of suppliers, has gradually adopted BOE panels for replacement units and mid-tier models. Meanwhile, in automotive OLEDs, Chinese vendors are surging rapidly. Although the overall market grew 112% year-on-year, Korea’s share declined by 5.5 percentage points to 76.1%, pressured by Chinese subsidies and domestic automakers’ preference for homegrown panels.

China Applying the Same Strategy That Crushed Korea’s LCDs to OLED

China’s aggressive capital expenditure is another catalyst of market realignment. Counterpoint forecasts that by 2027, Chinese firms will account for 83% of global OLED investment, six times Korea’s 13%. Yoshio Tamura, Vice President at Counterpoint, noted: “Chinese companies are channeling massive state subsidies into advanced OLED development, particularly flexible and LTPO (low-temperature polycrystalline oxide) OLED. Investments in cutting-edge RGB OLED utilizing LTPO are gaining momentum.”

LTPO OLED, an area still dominated by Samsung Display and LG Display, is integral to Apple’s flagship iPhone lineup, spanning all models from standard to Pro Max. The panels deliver 10–15% lower power consumption, driving adoption in premium smartphones. While BOE’s LTPO OLED reportedly failed Apple’s quality tests, analysts believe narrowing the technology gap is only a matter of time.

An industry insider observed: “China may be struggling in LTPO OLED, but in both small-to-mid and large premium OLEDs, it is catching up fast. If Korean firms lose their technological lead, they could surrender the market overnight. Moreover, with patriotism-driven consumption providing experience and scale, Chinese competition is even more formidable.” He added, “Just as China conquered LCDs through massive 10.5-generation investments, today’s 8.6-generation OLED buildout could yield a similar outcome.”

China Accelerating 8.6-Generation Investments, Contrasting LG Display’s Stalled 6-Generation Strategy

Chinese display makers began full-scale 8.6-generation IT OLED investment last year. BOE plans to pour $8 billion into 8.6-generation IT OLED by next year, targeting monthly capacity of 32,000 substrates. Half of this line began construction in the first half of last year, with the remainder scheduled for equipment orders later this year or early next. Visionox is also committing roughly $8 billion by 2027, with one-quarter of its 32,000-substrate line already earmarked for rollout this year.

These 8.6-generation initiatives aim to dominate the fast-growing tablet, notebook, and gaming OLED markets. Compared with current 6-generation production, 8.6-generation substrates are about 2.2 times larger, enabling higher output per sheet. This boost in efficiency lowers costs, positioning 8.6-generation OLED as a potential “game-changer” for the sector.

The contrast with LG Display is stark. Weighed down by financial distress, LG has shelved 8.6-generation investment and continues with 6-generation lines, raising concerns of losing ground in next-generation IT OLED. Even in transitioning to 6-generation, LG was slower than peers, ceding early advantages. With Samsung Display and BOE racing ahead in mass production, LG may struggle to secure future orders.

For now, LG Display maintains a near-monopoly in large OLED panels for TVs. But the threat remains. The Gyeonggi Research Institute warned: “The technology gap between BOE and Korea in OLED is assessed at less than one year. Without expanding the lead, Korea risks repeating its LCD collapse.” A senior display executive echoed: “Fueled by vast subsidies, Chinese firms could even undermine Korea’s dominance in large OLEDs. From a Cournot equilibrium perspective, aggressive capacity expansion will flood supply, shifting pricing power toward China.”